Why Great Britain’s success in Beijing could have been anticipated and why it should continue beyond 2012

摘要

Background: Home advantage in the summer Olympic\udGames is well known. What is not so well known is that\udcountries that host the Olympic Games perform better in\udthe games before and after the games in which they were\udhosts.\udObjective: To model/quantify the significance associated\udwith these ‘‘hosting’’ effects and to explain the likely\udcauses of Great Britain’s improved medals haul in Beijing,\udwhile examining implications for London 2012 and\udbeyond.\udResults: Using all hosting cities/countries since World\udWar II and analysing the number of medals awarded to\udcompetitors as a binomial proportion (p) response variable\udwithin a logit model, we identified a significant increase in\udthe probability/odds of a country obtaining a medal in the\udOlympic Games before, during and after hosting the\udOlympics.\udConclusions: Funding appears to be an important factor\udwhen explaining these findings. Almost all countries that\udhave been awarded the games after World War II would\udappear to have invested heavily in sport before being\udawarded the games. A second factor in Great Britain’s\udsuccess is the legacy of hosting the Commonwealth\udGames in 2002 (a post-hosting games effect) that\udundoubtedly provided an infrastructure that benefited, in\udparticular, cycling. Whether the International Olympics\udCommittee either consciously or subconsciously take\udthese factors into account is unclear when awarding the\udgames to a city. What is clear is that based on these\udfindings, Great Britain’s prospects of maintaining the\udOlympic success achieved in Beijing is likely to continue to\udLondon 2012 and beyond.